Benvenuto sulla nostra pagina FB a Basil Coronakis , fondatore del settimanale The New Europe di Bruxelles. Grazie ad un accordo appena stipulato, avremo il piacere di ospitare i contributi della sua squadra! Ad Astra!
For the Europeans
On the European front there is politically unity. Certain Member States look at the economic aspects of a possible agreement in the Calvinistic way, weighing profits over losses. But this is not the issue. For Europe, the issue is as Vladimir Lenin very seriously emphasised, that “the best way to destroy the capitalist system is to debauch the currency”.
That said, the European front is prioritising politics over figures. It aims at politically defeating Greece’s left-wing SYRIZA in order to discourage other Europeans from voting for similar parties in the future. It is as simple as that.
Brussels claims Europeans cannot risk the achievements of half a billion people of the past 70 years for 10 million Greeks. The truth is the European Union is ruled by two deeply conservative political families: the EPP (Popular) and D&S (Socialist). Both are determined not to allow any leftist (neo-Communist) intrusion in one Member State for fear it could contagiously spread to other countries.
At the same time, a possible Grexit might trigger serious problems to European markets and it could certainly initiate the decline in the value of the euro. This will also damage American exports, which explains why United States President Barack Obama is showing so much interest in keeping Greece in the Eurozone.
Europeans are composed and experienced negotiators in contrast to the Greeks, who are represented by a new, inexperienced and politically confused government. Europeans will play their cards – the strongest of which, at this moment, is the lack of liquidity of the Greek banks – and will maximise politically in defeating SYRIZA while trying to minimise the economic “damage”. This European strategy, however, will remain until the end of this confrontation, to keep Greece in the Eurozone.
Tactically, the Europeans consider the best-case scenario is to achieve a fast interim agreement with the Greeks in order to resolve urgent Greek problems. This agreement should be approved by all pro-European parties in the Greek Parliament, yet without the approval of the “Leftist Platform” of SYRIZA. This will force the formation of a coalition government under Alexis Tsipras. Elections would follow after a few months in order to elect a new government that will sign a final agreement.
For the Greeks
The Greeks are in complete confusion. They have prepared a draft proposal that they must submit by tomorrow. As this proposal should be in line with what they have rejected 10 days ago, it is unlikely to be approved in the Greek Parliament by the “Leftist Platform” of SYRIZA. If the proposed agreement is passed by the government, the prime minister will need to reshuffle his cabinet excluding the leftist ministers and introducing ministers from other parties. The Europeans also consider this a priority as regards the Greek concessions.
Well-informed sources in Athens told New Europe the “Leftist Platform” of SYRIZA is exerting unprecedented pressures on Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras to refuse any deal with the Europeans, to withdraw from the euro and to introduce the drachma as a second currency in the beginning.
The understanding is that a Grexit will isolate Greece from Europe and the country will officially be declared bankrupt. This will create serious responsibilities for the government and primarily for the Prime Minister himself. In this way, the “Leftist Platform” believes the Prime Minister will shift the country to an authoritarian regime becoming the Hugo Chavez of the Mediterranean and the communists will stay in power forever.
This is very unlikely to happen. Indeed, the 61% majority “NO” vote in the Greek referendum was a personal victory of Alexis Tsipras and the possibility to lead a grand coalition government will absolve him from any possible responsibility on the economic catastrophe the country suffered after the decision to stop the negotiations with Brussels and to hold the referendum.
Alexis Tsipras studied engineering at university and this implies he has a practical mind. It means that when assessing situations he takes into account all the different parameters. This is quite encouraging and since the Europeans are sharp and intelligent, Grexit is not the most probable evolution.
However, the unpredictable should never be ruled out until the very last moment. Usually, it surfaces from the character of the protagonists and the emotions of the circumstances.
Basil A. Coronakis
* Tratto dal sito http://www.neurope.eu